Aztecs try to right ship in MWC clash with Cowboys

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Losers of three in a row, the 24th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs try to regain their footing tonight as they clash with the Wyoming Cowboys in Mountain West Conference action at Viejas Arena.

The Aztecs, who have not dropped four consecutive decisions since 2004-05 when the program was beaten in six straight at one juncture, had lost just three of their first 23 outings of the season before this recent slide. In addition to setbacks against UNLV and New Mexico, the two other premier programs in the MWC, somehow the Aztecs were caught off-guard by Air Force on Saturday in a 58-56 final. The loss to The Academy was the first in the last nine meetings between the teams and leaves the Aztecs tied for second place in the MWC with UNLV, trailing UNM.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are sort of in the same boat as SDSU, having dropped three straight outings and four of the last five. Failing to reach 60 points in three consecutive contests, Wyoming was beaten by Colorado State over the weekend in Fort Collins, 54-46. A bit further back in the standings than the Aztecs, the Pokes are sixth in the league at just 4-6 after having a strong start to conference play.

The Aztecs have never defeated Wyoming in five straight games during the all- time series, but SDSU has an opportunity to do just that tonight after taking a 52-42 win in the first meeting of the campaign in Laramie last month. With that victory the Aztecs moved closer to knotting up the series which currently stands at 37-33 in favor of the Pokes.

In front of a sold-out crowd for the most recent installment of the Border War, Wyoming came up quite small on offense as it bowed to Colorado State by eight points at Moby Arena. Luke Martinez accounted for a game-high 15 points and Francisco Cruz chipped in another 10, but it wasn't nearly enough for the visitors to compete. Outscored by a 14-5 margin at the free-throw line, Wyoming was held to just three offensive rebounds and 19 boards overall in the matchup. Even though he didn't show up as one of the scoring leaders over the weekend, Leonard Washington is still a primary producer for the Cowboys in conference play with his 13.9 ppg, shooting 51.6 percent from the floor while also clearing 7.4 rpg to pace the group. Martinez (11.9 ppg) and Cruz (11.8 ppg) help to carry some of the load for the Cowboys on offense, but it has been the defense that has carried the group this far, allowing league foes just 57.6 ppg.

It was a long time coming, but perhaps San Diego State's loss to Air Force could serve as a wake-up call to the Aztecs who may have thought they could cruise through the campaign. However, SDSU did have a built-in excuse since they were missing Jamaal Franklin who was held out with an ankle injury. With That Franklin watching from the sidelines, Chase Tapley tried to lead the team onto victory with his 17 points and nine rebounds, but it simply wasn't good enough. Tim Shelton added a double-double for the visitors to Clune Arena with his 13 points and 11 boards as the team shot just 18-of-52 from the floor and 3-of-16 beyond the arc. Jamaal Franklin is again not listed in the starting lineup tonight, which means if he fails to make an appearance the Aztecs again have to find a suitable alternative to his 16.0 ppg and 7.4 rpg, both of which pace the program. Tapley, one of the most experienced players in program history, is putting up 15.8 ppg as a 43.8 percent shooter from three-point range, but he can only do so much for SDSU when they are missing a critical piece at both ends of the floor.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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